The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t

Author: Nate Silver

By now, everyone knows who Nate Silver is. He’s the guy that everyone knew for predicting what exactly was going to happen in Presidential elections, but then also failed miserably in the 2016 election when his prediction of Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump blew up in his face. What many may not know is that Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t, which was published in 2012, has models and insight that can be applied to the world of sports betting.

The book teaches you that many predictions fail, which is exactly what the title lets on. Confidence and accuracy don’t always meet at the top of the mountain, and because of it, some predictions thought to be indestructible can crumble to the ground.

What Silver’s book teaches is that pulling back the reins on one’s confidence in order to be a little bit more modest can be a gateway to success.

If you’re an avid sports bettor, even beyond the scope of betting on the NFL, The Signal and the Noise is an excellent read that can help you think in a unique way.